عنوان مقاله [English]
The directors and librarians of academic libraries have to develop strategic and future-oriented plans to maintain the durability of their organization in the face of environmental changes and developments arising from modern informational and communication technologies and effectively respond to the expectations of a knowledge-based society. The first step in this path is identifying and detecting the driving forces that influence the future of academic libraries and endeavoring to develop relevant scenarios. In this regard, the current dissertation aims to study and design the scenarios for the future of the academic libraries in iran to help provide suitable strategies for the promotion and development of libraries.
The current research a survey-applied in which 16 academic libraries have been selected by the quota sampling method and a number of professors and related experts, together with the managers or assistants of the libraries of the selected universities, have formed an expert panel. Besides, four researcher-made questionnaires have been designed to gather the required data. To achieve the research goals, firstly, a comprehensive literature review has been conducted to extract the drivers affecting the future of academic libraries. Then these drivers have been localized and screened by experts using the fuzzy Delphi method. After that, the weight of each driver was calculated using the fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process method. Key drivers and final uncertainties have been determined by combining this method's results with the Cross Impact Analysis.
A review of the studies resulted in a list of 112 candidate drivers that could influence the future of academic libraries. These items were extracted in eight political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental dimensions (in order to examine the external environment), in addition to the "structural-administrative" and "nature and services of libraries" dimensions (checking the internal environments). This study showed that the influence of "technology" and "structural and management" dimensions have been in the focus of researchers' attention. In other words, the effects of information and communication technology and "structural and management" are more impressive from the operational dimension and require serious attention and policy making by those involved in the scenarios facing university libraries. In the following, after analyzing the aspects of the final uncertainties, among the possible candidate scenarios, four acceptable scenarios such as Utopia, Kalid Ganj, Vail and ruins were drawn for the future of university libraries, among them the Arman scenario, the city was chosen as an imaginary future.